Friday, March 9, 2007

~BRAVO MR.UDAYAN~

Clarifying the government's stand on the ban on cement exports, Commerce Minister Kamal Nath mentions that he has not said that they will ban cement exports, rather he would look at all options.

He says that the government wants cement companies to be healthy and profitable. He does not want cement companies to take advantage of the demand-supply mismatch. Nath also mentions that they are examining the reasons whether levies can be absorbed.

According to Nath, the ban on exports may not be imposed if companies choose to absorb duties. In his view, cement companies must make profits; he is concerned about excessive profits.

Excerpt's from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Kamal Nath:

Q: The market is very worried by what you said this afternoon. Did you actually go on record saying that you are considering banning exports for cement?

A: I didn’t say that. I said that we are going to look at all aspects to see if cement companies will absorb new levies that have been imposed. We do not want them to profiteer; we want them to make a profit in a healthy way. At the same time we have to ensure that there is no extra fat there. It’s a question of having muscle and not fat.

Q: What is profiteering in your eyes, since these are cyclical businesses, which sometimes do well and sometimes don’t. Where does the concept of profiteering come in?

A: Excessive profit; taking advantage of a supply-demand mismatch or temporary supply demand constraints, raising prices by taking advantages is profiteering.

Q: It is disturbing to hear you say that because in all industries across the world when demand exceeds supply prices go up. Isn’t that the basic law of economics that when demand exceeds supply prices move it?

A: It’s certainly the law and that’s how the market operates. The market operates on supply demand basis but when there is an unnatural temporary situation, one has to consider it. So we are examining the options on whether these levies can be absorbed. Infact the Finance Minister has said that his intention was to ensure that there is no increase in prices. It’s a matter of looking into this whole issue in detail and also for cement companies to see to what extent these levies can be absorbed with or without them being passed on.

Q: If they cannot absorb the levies and choose to pass it on would you consider banning exports to cool prices?

A: I do not think there is any point in answering the question, which starts with IF because that would be another question.

Q: If they choose to absorb it then will you not consider it?
A: Certainly not. Price control is not something, which should be used and not export banning because export markets are developed and you must remember that I also want to see exports rise. But at the same time one has to look at it holistically, so we are in discussions with them and I am sure solution will be found.

Q: What if a solution is not found because our talks with the cement companies seem to indicate that they are reluctant to absorb this entire excise themselves?

A: Those are your talks, we are also having talks and that is not necessary everybody’s talks are your talks.

Q: Your talks are showing up that they will absorb the excise hike?

A: My talks are with everybody looking at it and it is going to be studied in the next 2-3 days.

Q: What is your definition of excess profits, you used the phrase that they are making excess profits?

A: Excessive profits are when an advantage is taken for temporary dislocations in supply-demand. I am sure everybody understands what excessive profits are and what profiteering is. I said that the companies must be healthy and should make profits. That’s the whole basis of this.

Q: By the same logic, if these companies face a temporary excessive supply in the market then would the government actually step in to stem some of the losses of the cement companies because if you are taking away their profits today, then excess supply situations leading to losses should also be addressed which you did not when the cement companies really when through bad times for the last many years?

A: I have not said we are going to take their profits away. So don’t put those words in my mouth.

Q: I don’t think there is any great hue and cry from the consumer. We don’t hear any resistance on the part of consumers of cement. Is it not that the government has a problem with the inflation number which is why its training a few sectors like cement?

A: If you have not heard it, I don’t know how much ears you have to the ground because no consumer wants a price rise.

Q: Why don’t you freeze all prices in the economy then? Why just cement?

A: We will do what we have to; we are doing whatever we can to curtail the rise in price rise. We will continue to take effective steps.

Q: Which are the sectors you are training other than cement because it has started with sugar, which you have effectively killed in the last 3 months?

A: That’s your perception of it. That’s not the consumer’s perception of it.

Q: On the sugar sector?

A: No, that’s not the perception for the sugar sector.

Q: That is very much the perception of the sugar sector; I can play you sound byte after sound byte of the sugar manufacturers coming out and saying that they will start making losses this quarter and throughout this year because of your ban on sugar exports?

A: They have made losses, that’s not what the figures have shown, that’s not what they have said in their discussion with me.

Q: Of course that figure shows that? Have you seen the quarterly numbers of sugar companies this quarter?

A: Their losses are not because of prices.

Q: Their losses are centrally due to the ban on export of sugar, which has led to a collapse in sugar prices locally?

A: Do you know how much sugar was imported two years ago?

Q: Why don’t we discuss the issue at hand? Because of your ban on sugar exports, sugar companies are making losses today, is that a fact or not? Will you please go and check with the sugar companies?

A: Will you please go and check with the consumers what they have to say and will you go and check with the farmer, if you ever have any connection with him because you should not talk just on behalf of the sugar companies. You got to talk to the farmers, you got to talk to the consumers. That’s it. If you ever have an opportunity to talk to farmers, then talk to them and then make a statement of it.


Watch Complete Bravery ACT

Inflation is it really on Govt.'s mind??

For the week ended February 24, inflation stood at 6.10% versus 6.05% the previous week. The market estimate was at 6%.

Surjit Bhalla of Principal Oxus Investments and N Jayakumar, MD of Prime Securities express their concerns on inflation.


Bhalla is shocked at the way the government is handling inflation. He feels that none of the moves by the government to curb inflation make sense. In his view, the government move on wheat and cement is irrelevant.

According to N Jayakumar, history has shown that excise cut has led to lower prices. He feels that talks like curbing profiteering is similar to Licence Raj. He also adds that commodity companies are facing uncertainties of not getting full upside.

Excerpts of CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Surjit Bhalla and N Jayakumar:

Q: What’s your sense of how the government should approach inflation because it seems to be targeting one sector after another and trying to cool prices directly with intervention?

Surjit Bhalla: I have been rather surprised, or shall we say, shocked at the way the government has talked about handling inflation. Afterall, this was a dream team - they had the best and the brightest, the Prime Minister is a very famous and very distinguished economist. So none of these, what they have said about - and I literary mean none - make any sense, whatsoever, to fight inflation.

The second point, which I think the government knows, is that inflation is already a happened event, that is we had the inflation and if you will, certainly according to our calculations, inflation is on its way down, back to the 4.5-5% level. So why make rather stupid noises and stupid policies ostensibly to fight inflation. I think we have to move away from markets and economics into the realm of psychology to try and explain what the government has tried to do and said, including starting off from the Budget speech and afterwards; there is no economic content.

Banning wheat and rice futures has nothing whatsoever to bring down inflation especially since wheat prices are already on the way down, not to say that they would have had anything to do with when the wheat prices are going up. Internationally wheat prices went up, so you couldn’t have done anything. So that has nothing to do with it.

Then, we have the whole fiasco on cement pricing, where you are telling firms to hold the prices. We all know that prices maybe held for a day or two maybe a month, two months and then finally it pops. So that doesn’t make any sense. But these are the two major policy initiatives, outside of the monetary policy, which is not ostensively in the domain of the Finance Ministry. But even then, the Finance Minister had felt compelled to talk about how interest rates should be held at a certain level.

So I think all in all, none of the measures have had anything to do and will have anything to do with inflation, when and if, in our view, it will come down.

Q: What are your thoughts on what the government has been trying to do with a few specific sectors to cool prices by intervening directly?

N Jayakumar: To begin with, the disclaimer is I am not a psychologist. So if it has meant to come from this part of the country, the solution isn’t coming here. But I go slightly differently which is that there is the age-old adage of KISS principle, Keep It Simple Stupid. While that applies to many situations in many walks of life, I think the simplest most direct measure

to communicate a lowering of price is cutting input prices or cutting excise duties; and that comes from not today, not yesterday but 50 years of empirical evidence.

If one goes back to Budgets of a few years ago, you had direct communication with customers saying prices have come down of A, B, C, D, literally price tags being put on the newspaper to indicate how they had passed on the benefit because the underlying logic is when you cut prices, a higher demand at a lower price is probably significantly better than companies trying to maximize by selling it at a higher price. That’s one of the KISS principle that we should have taken.

The second is, cutting corporate taxes. In some sense, I think corporates are becoming extremely responsible citizens in the overall framework of what we are trying to achieve, which is that I do not believe in words like profiteering etc. Therefore this entire approach of a company trying to profiteer and we must stop literally goes back to almost the License Raj where pricing and distribution curbs become rampant in an economy, which today, is breaking loose in a free end economically liberalized world.

So from that perspective, I think taxes whether direct taxes or excise duties, indirect taxes, would have been and should be the only way to do it in addition to the RBI, which you may not always agree with in terms of being ahead of the curve and cutting money supply.

So from that perspective there are economic measures that are available but I believe there is bit of the schoolmaster teaching his school children errand school children what to do. Just look at the kind of pronouncements that have happened, shocking, absolutely shocking.

The cement industry has been told to learn from the steel industry on the way they have cut prices. I am quoting these are economic snippets, which we have taken off from the last few days. We will continue to talk and bring them to reduced prices or in the Budget saying I saw Rs 190 per bag, is a good price to sell cement. Are we sitting and talking about controlling balance sheets of individual corporates? Where have we gone back to?

It is almost because you feel you have the power that you can almost dictate pricing and distribution curbs and some of these pronouncements seem to be from that mindset rather than from an economic mindset, which says let’s make the conditions conducive. So from a psychological perspective, I have been probably uncharitable in one-two pronouncements earlier where I say there is a bit of socialism in terms of hurting or leveling out people who are making extraordinary profits.

Cartoon!!


Thursday, March 8, 2007

Did We Miss?

Well everyone says....those who had shorted missed oppertunity...did we? Nah!!

See whats here....so be a member of my group before you miss more of such runups..Even today have bought Panama, Prithvi, Sujana, GPIL and some other stock...report on Prithvi allready sent.

"Yesterday we managed very well and bouncing back from our supports levels indicates that we are still not into any kind of bear phase. Also American and Asian indices did well. We have closed above the expected resistance zone yesterday, which can take us to 13400 levels once again. So keep S.L. of 12315 and hold/ go long. My buy recommendations for the day would be:

Bajaj Auto,

Tata Motors,

Hind Motors,

Bharti Artl,

RCOM,

GBN,

IBULLS,

India Cement,

HFCL,

Sesa Goa,

SBI,

UTI Bank,

GTC.


Those in BOLD are my top picks for the day.

Regards,
Bhavin Mehta.
http://investmentpark.blogspot.com

Tuesday, March 6, 2007

New For The Day.

Fundamental- Bajaj Auto-06-03-07

By Bhavin Mehta - 2:02am - 1 new of 1 message

Fundamental- HDFC: FOCUS OF THE DAY : ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE-06-03-07.

By Bhavin Mehta - 1:41am - 1 new of 1 message

IPO- Listing Dates- 06-03-07.

*MindTree Consulting IPO - Listing* *Date: 3/7/2007* *MindTree Consulting Limited IPO listing date & Info : Listing On: March 7, 2007 BSE Script Code: NSE Symbol: MINDTREE Listing in: ISIN: INE018I01017 Issue Price: Rs. 425/- Per share (Face Value of Rs. 10/-) * *Evinix Accessories IPO - Listing* *Date: 3/7/2007* *Evinix Accessories... more »
By Bhavin Mehta - 1:40am - 1 new of 1 message

Fundamental- EDEL: Reliance Industries- 06-03-07.

By Bhavin Mehta - 1:38am - 1 new of 1 message

Educational- Market Timing- 06-03-07.

[image: Stock College] Market timing is the most important expertise you must master to become a successful trader. This is where the majority of stock market traders fall by the wayside. Buy too early and you are squeezed out on any temporary falls. Sell short too early and you are squeezed out on any up moves, even... more »
By Bhavin Mehta - 1:37am - 1 new of 1 message

Educational- Full Time Trader- 06-03-07.

So you want to become a full time stock trader? This is the dream of many. The problem is that it is very easy to be wiped-out in the learning process. Some lucky people have the skills to make money from the stock market and keep it, knowing very little. This is because they are skilled at money management and taking risks. They know how... more »
By Bhavin Mehta - 1:27am - 1 new of 1 message

Educational- History Says BEAR First.-06-03-07.

[image: Stock College] Terminology used by stock brokers and Wall Street insiders tends to be rather complicated what with jargon such as margins, small cap, and indices, it can be difficult to tell what the devil these people are talking about. Still, the most basic of stock market terms, "bull" and "bear," date back to... more »
By Bhavin Mehta - 1:24am - 1 new of 1 message

Commodity- Pepper- 06-03-07.

(VNA) - VietNam is holding a golden chance to rule over the global pepper market with 60 percent of pepper sales in the world coming from this tropical country, said the Viet Nam Pepper Association (VPA). It is forecast that Viet Nam will continue to maintain its first position in pepper export thanks to the reduction of acreage of pepper... more »
By Investmentpark - Mar 5 - 1 new of 1 message

GLOBAL PEPPER PRICES

hello everybody nice groups moderated by bhavin keep it my dear freind here goes the sme global scenrio for blak and whitte pepper(2006-07) Pepper prices, which have increased considerably this year, are likely to continue their upward swing in the coming months as the production in some of the origins is projected to be lower, according to Vietnam Business Forum. The Forum has said this quoting the Vietnam Ministry of Trade. According to the Forum the sole current supplier in the world is India. Indonesia has just sold some of its newly harvested pepper. Vietnam has sold 60 per cent of this year's output, leaving 25,000 tonne in the reserve, thus not being able to join the market, it said. Brazil, it said, will not harvest its pepper until October. There are also rumours in the air that that "Vietnam, Indonesia and India will have a bad pepper crop due to severe weather and high production cost," it said. The Indian pepper output in 2007 is projected to be... more »
By abc def - Mar 5 - 1 new of 1 message



Intraday- Mangal Keshav- Morning Notes- 06-03-07.

Dear Ma'am / Sir, Please find attached a copy of Morning Daily dated 6th March 2007. Thanking you, Regards, MKSL Research Dept
By Bhavin Mehta - Mar 5 - 1 new of 1 message

Sorry For Attaching Link.

By Bhavin Mehta - Mar 5 - 1 new of 1 message

Intraday- Religare Daily Technical Report - 06/03/2007.

By Bhavin Mehta - Mar 5 - 1 new of 1 message

Exclusive- Intraday- Bhavin Mehta- 06-03-07.

We have seen a huge correction on back of that we can see limited downside. Keep S.L. at 12315.
By Bhavin Mehta - Mar 5 - 1 new of 1 message

06-03-07.

Sorry For Attaching Link. Check Here.

Regards,
Bhavin Mehta.

Monday, March 5, 2007

No Calls Today!!Not Possible.

Intra-day 05-03-2007.

Expecting market to correct anywhere between 300 to 600 points today. Lets see.
Though I truly believe in long term value but in short term market can see sharp Southwards journey. Once again those who had followed my earlier recommendation would be largely beneficial once again as it was when market moved down from 12600 to 7999. Almost all Asian Are in Deep Red.

Sell For The Day:

Ahlucont(B2 Group , Highly Volatile.),

Akruti,

Essar Steel,

GBN,

HLL,

IDFC,

IFCI,

Tech Mahi,

Voltas.

Please keep appropriate S.L. in all above stocks.

One can buy following stocks on dips:

GACL,

Graphite Ind.

Regards,
Bhavin Mehta.


These were the calls for the day. Well I have given them to some freinds who asked and rest on my yahoo group. You can check but only when you will become its member. So Hurry up and remember my group will go paid post 200 members. Enjoy.

Sunday, March 4, 2007

New Group For All.

Hi Do Join My Group. Soon It Will Be an Exclusive So Join Fast!

TOP 50 BUY ASIA~FUNDAMENTAL PICKS CITIGROUP. Click Here

MoneyTimes Click Here


Budget Impact On Cement~UBS. Click Here

Thanks and regards,
Bhavin Mehta.